There is considerable uncertainty in the US epidemic. If the implementation is in place, in principle 10 to 14 days, a reduction in the number of new cases can be seen. Slower, the turning point will appear in 4 weeks, but things are even more troublesome. “It is extremely difficult to predict the inflection point,” he said. “It depends on whether the determination to isolate is large enough. Mainland China has demonstrated it to you.”
At 21:00 on March 26th, Beijing time, the Chinese Embassy in the United States invited Professor Zhang Wenhong to answer online questions for overseas students and overseas Chinese. The Beijing Daily extracts some of Zhang Wenhong’s views as follows:
New York has nucleic acid detection capabilities
Zhang Wenhong said that there are more than 30,000 confirmed cases in New York State. The problem is serious, and the US outbreak has not seen a peak. However, if New York does not have the testing capabilities, where do more than 30,000 confirmed cases come from? This shows that New York has enough testing capabilities, and doctors can accurately distinguish between novel coronavirus pneumonia and influenza. In other words, where the number of cases is small, there may not be detection capabilities. In areas with many cases, people do not need to worry about testing.
“Stupid” causes many American youth infections
Most of the confirmed cases in Wuhan, China, are family-transmitted, and in the United States, young people have a greater proportion of coronavirus pneumonia. The risk of infection is mainly in close contact. Young people do not live with their parents. For American students, they have a lot of social activities. Therefore, “blind” is the greatest risk of infection now, both in the United States and Britain.
Inflection point in the U.S. as fast as 10 to 14 days
When will the inflection point of the United States occur? Zhang Wenhong analyzed that there is a professional team behind all medical policies in the United States. Why is the epidemic situation different from place to place? The characteristic of the United States is that each state in the United States does it according to its own method and has different policies, so it is very normal for the United States to get out of sync early.
The inflection point in many places around the world can be calculated, that is, the R0 value of the basic number of infectious diseases. At present, the number of new additions in Italy has begun to decline. America’s peak depends on the United States’ response to recent very severe emergencies. For example, in Salt Lake City, the United States, implementing emergency measures when there are only 300 confirmed cases can effectively block transmission. The early period of rising cases is the best time, after missing, some communities in the United States have seen community transmission.
Virus blocking mainly depends on the implementation of US policy strategies. There is considerable uncertainty in the US epidemic. If the implementation is in place, 10 to 14 days, we can see a reduction in the number of new cases. Slower, the turning point will appear in 4 weeks, but things are even more troublesome. “It is extremely difficult to predict the inflection point,” he said. “It depends on whether the determination to isolate is large enough. Mainland China has demonstrated it to you.”